Observatorio de la Ballona

I haven’t posted anything for almost 2 weeks. I had far less spare time while travelling than I expected. I have many ideas for posts, but they will have to wait until I have some spare time to post.

As I mentioned in the last post, I have recently arrived in Tokyo, the first leg on an extended business trip to the Far East. I’ll be visting Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Singapore.

The trip started off with a twist. I had put in a request to be upgraded to First Class with frequent flier miles and had made the waiting list. When I got to the airport, I did not receive a seat assignment as Business Class was overbooked. Everything turned out well. Not only did I get the upgrade, but because they didn’t use the correct “inventory” for issuing my first class boarding pass, I didn’t have to use my frequent flier miles!

The flight was uneventful and long, about 11 hours. Because the flight left as 12:30pm and arrived at 5:00pm, I did not sleep on the flight. My only complaint is that the flight attendant gave me my overcoat and jacket 30 minutes before we landed. I still had my briefcase out, magazines open, etc. I put the jackets in the overhead bin. What is the point of taking your jacket if they are going to give it back to you an hour before you reach the gate?

There was a 45 minute line for immigration. Then a 10 minute wait for currency exchange. Then a 30 minute wait for the bus. So an hour and a half from leaving the plane to getting in the bus into Tokyo. Tokyo’s Narita airport in a long way from Tokyo. It was another hour and a half before I got to the hotel.

The Tokyo Grand Hyatt is a very nice hotel. It is in the Roppongi Hills district, a newly redeveloped area. I met my colleague, Sim Choo, at the hotel and he took me to dinner at Monseiur Ton Ton (I think that is the name), a Japanese steak house. We sat by the grill while the chef made dinner in front of us. The food was excellent. Notable were the very fresh shrimp (so fresh they objected to being cooked) and excellent beef.

After dinner I was able to watch some of the Turino Olympics live, as the time change is my favor with Turino 8 hours behind Tokyo.

This morning, Mount Fuji was visible in the distance as the day broke clear and cold.

Yesterday I flew from Los Angeles to Tokyo (and boy are my arms tired ;-)). Los Angeles to Tokyo is one of those flights to the west that are not conducive to sleep so I had the chance to catch up on my magazine reading. Among other things, I read the February issue of Discover Magazine. I was very disappointed as it contained, as it usually does, several references to the clear connection between global warming and human activity. I apologize for not having any links, but it is a members only site. I get in later I’ll quote some here. In many ways Discover is a good magazine, but its acceptance and promulgation of the global warming dogma of human activity really ticks me off.

I try to be a scientific sceptic about most topics, waiting to see the scientific method work its way to a conclusion. This is why I have so much trouble with coverage of, and in some cases scientist quoted opinion about, global warming. It was refreshing to see a thoughtful piece by Holman Jenkins on this topic in the Wall Street Journal (sorry, subscription required). I’ll quote liberally so you get the point.

He starts off by stating what I have seen as the clear problem with coverage of global warming:

As used by the media, “global warming” refers to the theory not only that the earth is warming, but doing so because of human industrial activity.

This is a great place to start. The “common wisdom” wraps in two huge scientific conclusions as being answered. First, it says that the Earth is waming. This seems to be the case, but the current methods of temperature measurement are relatively new so the comparability of historical measurements is a difficult problem. Are we warming? Our numbers seem to show this, but in the 1970’s we were facing an imminent ice age. We need more data and more research.

Second, is human activity causing the warming. The most cited statistic is the rise in atmospheric CO2. Jenkins suggests that we might take this on faith.

Well, he could begin by evaluating the claim that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 0.028% to 0.036% without necessarily taking the measurements himself. This finding is so straightforward, it’s reasonable to assume it would have been widely debunked if unreliable.

But the jump to having this cause serious global warming is a big one. Jenkins says it better than I could.

Next, the claim that this should lead to higher temperatures because of the heat-absorbing qualities of the CO2 molecule. A reasonable person might be tempted to take this finding on faith too, for a different reason: because even ardent believers in global warming accept that this fact alone wouldn’t justify belief in manmade global warming.

That’s because all things are not equal: The climate is a vast, complex and poorly understood system. Scientists must resort to elaborate computer models to address a multiplicity of variables and feedbacks before they can plausibly suggest (choice of verb is deliberate here) that the net effect of increased carbon dioxide is the observed increase in temperature.

This is the jump that is taken by faith by the media and much of the political left. It FITS with an attitude that the ills of the world, perceived or real, are our fault (or at least Western Civilization’s fault). But it is not science. In one issue of Discover magazine from late last year, they interviewed a climate researcher who retired because he could not get funding for research that did not toe the line that people were causing catastrphic global warming. Al Gore adminstered the grant program. The same issue included an article that says that few politictions question the link between human activity and global warming. (This deserves a post all its own.)

This jump is anti-science. We need to learn more. Again, Jenkins says it very well:

Next, the claim that this should lead to higher temperatures because of the heat-absorbing qualities of the CO2 molecule. A reasonable person might be tempted to take this finding on faith too, for a different reason: because even ardent believers in global warming accept that this fact alone wouldn’t justify belief in manmade global warming.

That’s because all things are not equal: The climate is a vast, complex and poorly understood system. Scientists must resort to elaborate computer models to address a multiplicity of variables and feedbacks before they can plausibly suggest (choice of verb is deliberate here) that the net effect of increased carbon dioxide is the observed increase in temperature.

We need to open to the possibility that human activity is changing the climate. Actually, I would say that there is no doubt that human activity is changing the climate, but we don’t know how. We need to keep an open mind and get more data.

And we need to resist making global warming a political topic in the face of uncertain science. Because when politics or preconception affect science, we get bad science.

I’ve got this far giving Jenkins the nod for saying it well. I’ll close that way as well.

A final thought that probably won’t please the environmentalists: Whatever the truth of climate change turns out to be, today’s vast investment in climate research will likely lead someday to technologies that really will allow us to alter local and global weather.

The Nishiki bike Andy refers to I bought nearly 20 years ago when I worked for a large urban public school district. That bike is about the only positive memory I have from my first year of teaching. My Nishiki is a racing bike and I bought it because it doesn’t weigh very much. I’m petite & I knew that I wouldn’t be able to lift a heavier bike into a car.

Andy is correct about changes in bike technology. My new comfort bike weighs just a bit more than the Nishiki and riding it is easier on my back. I’m not hunched over the handle-bars as I am when I ride the Nishiki. I love the shock absorbers. Carrying a back-pack full of student work, my PowerMac laptop, and lesson plans leaves me with a stiff lower back. I’m trying to exercise more and regain my flexibility.